Todd Sattersten :: Astronaut Projects

SXSW - James Surowiecki

I am listening to James Surowiecki's talk on The Wisdom of Crowds.

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?
Experts correct 66% of the time
Crowd correct 91% of the time.

Examples of tapping into collective intelligence:
Iowa Electronic Markets
Sports Trading.com - predicted all 50 state and 33 of 34 senate races
HP - sales forecast
E Lilly - drug trials
Siemens - predict software development cycles

Needs for collective intelligence to work:

  • Method to Aggregate People's Judgement (all people equal, capture collective)
  • Diversity - more diversity means smarter crowds (all people bring different perspectives)....investment clubs--male/female clubs did better single sex clubs...experts can't see their blind spots...exceptions bridge players and weatherman...
  • Independence - you want to people to use their own knowledge and experience...when we work hard to reach consensus, you sacrifice the best decision...this is hard---humans by nature are imitators....reputation is important to all of us...if we do what others do, it is lower risk

Tags: sxsw2006

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March 11, 2006 in Strategy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

What's In a Name?

Chipotle Mexican Grill had their IPO last week and the WSJ ran a short piece on the titles that company leaders use.

The customer service manager goes by "Manager of Duct Tape and Plungers". The guy who runs creative-services is the head of "Special Weapons and Tactics". Finally, the company's spokeman goes by "Director of Hoopla, Hype, and Ballyhoo".

That probably gives some indication of the kind of place it is to work. :)

January 30, 2006 in Management, Public Relations, Strategy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Texas Tech in Cotton Bowl Today

I should have gotten this up a little sooner, but if you read the Michael Lewis piece from New York Times Magazine about Texas Tech, you have a chance see them in action today.

Texas Tech (9-2) is playing Alabama (9-2) in the Cotton Bowl. Game starts at 11:00ET and will be televised on FOX.

January 02, 2006 in Misc., Strategy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Milwaukee looks good in the Fortune 500

OnMilwaukee.com looked through the recent Fortune 500 issue and found the Milwaukee and Wisconsin fared pretty well.

  • Wisconsin has 25 Fortune 1000 companies
  • The big names are Northwestern Mutual, Johnson Controls, Manpower, Kohl's, Harley-Davison, Rockwell, and Wisconsin Energy Corporation.
  • Johnson Controls is the top ranked Wisconsin company at #71
  • In looking at metro Milwaukee, the area ranked #5 when you consider population and number of ranked companies.

April 29, 2005 in Business Media, Management, Strategy, Wisconsin | Permalink | TrackBack (2)

Milwaukee Companies Taking a Beating

It has been a rough couple of weeks for Milwaukee-based companies.

Things started with Harley-Davidson. On April 13th, the motorcycle maker announced earnings were up 11% but that sales were flat. They lower 2005 earnings expectations and said they would cut production. The stock has dropped 22% since the announcement.

Yesterday, the highly recognized Midwest Airlines announced losses of 91 cents per share for the first quarter. They said fuel prices are up 36% over last year. On a positive note, they saw revenues grow almost 11%. Midwest's stock is down almost 10% since the announcement.

Harley got hit because people didn't expect the flat sales. They'll be fine.

Midwest on the other hand I am worried about. They lost $15.9 million dollars this quarter. The company is only worth $31 million at this point. I am not sure how they can survive in this environment of high fuel costs and no ability to raise prices. I am flying with them in both June and July to do my little bit. There is improved quality of life here by having a local airline that flies direct to big cities. There is nothing that beats their Signature service. I wish them luck in the months ahead.

April 21, 2005 in Management, Operations, Strategy, Wisconsin | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

The GE Whole is Greater the the Sum of the Parts

When Jack Welch was running GE, there were weekly rumors that NBC was going to be sold to [insert entertainment company]. I never understood the intrigue around GE owning NBC. Jack did the deal to get NBC back, and he liked the business. He wasn't going to sell it.

He also understood that having the network(s) created something bigger when you combined it with the industrial businesses and financial services. Last night's episode of ER is a perfect example. The soccer mom played by Cynthia Dixon was diagnosed on a GE Lightspeed VCT and the blood clot was able to be removed with the help of a Innov 4100 system. It is not unusual for their to be GE Healthcare equipment all over the ER, but this episode was partially written to highlight the technology.

The whole is sometimes greater than the parts.

February 18, 2005 in Marketing, Strategy | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thoughts from Boeing on A380

Randy Baseler is the Vice President of Marketing for Boeing's Commercial Planes division.

Baseler has started what he calls a web journal. Later in the entries, he refers to having done research into web logs. I think his "web journal" needs permalinks and an RSS feed, but it is a start. I sent him an email about it. We'll see if her responds.

Now for the thoughts. Baseler starts with this:

Along with the A380 being an engineering marvel it also represents a very large misjudgment about how most passengers want to travel and how most airlines operate.

It's quotes like these which can come back to haunt, but I think he backs it up to a certain extent:

Airbus is calling for a significant shift in recent trends. It believes we will all fly from hub to hub, with one or more connecting flights to complete our journey. Boeing believes airlines will continue to give passengers what they want -- more frequency choices and more non-stop, point-to-point flights.

Consider that Airbus says London's Heathrow will use the most A380s during the next two decades. Yet, the 747's share of departures at Heathrow hasn't changed during the past twenty years. Airbus lists Tokyo's two airports and Hong Kong's as major A380 hubs. But at those three airports, the 747 as a percentage of departures is about half of what it was in the 1990s. If large airplanes solve congestion, the 747 departures would have been going up.

I am fascinated to see how the rivalry progresses and it is great to hear comments direct from Boeing.

[via commoncraft]

January 19, 2005 in Business Blogs, Strategy, Technology | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Defining Victory

There is an outstanding article in the WSJ today about how the U.S. Army is rethinking its strategy. The idea of taking down a country by capturing its leaders doesn't work. Iraq has shown that clearly. What I find amazing about the article is how soon the Army is reconsidering its thinking.

They are changing measurements:

A recent directive, prepared by Mr. Rumsfeld's office and still in draft form, now yields to that view. It mandates that in the future, units' readiness for war should be judged not only by traditional standards, such as how well they fire their tanks, but by the number of foreign speakers in their ranks, their awareness of the local culture where they will fight, and their ability to train and equip local security forces. It orders the military's four-star regional commanders to "develop and maintain" new plans for battle, hoping to prevent the sort of postwar chaos that engulfed Iraq.

They are changing their capital investments:

The Army is discarding or delaying big parts of its longstanding plans. It recently announced it has pushed back introduction of its new lightweight fighting vehicle for several years, to 2014, freeing up $9 billion. Earlier plans had called for all of the service's combat units to be built around the light, quick, armored vehicle.

The Army now thinks it will need a mix of slower-to-deploy, heavy tanks as well as light fighting vehicles. This will allow commanders to swing quickly between tasks, the Army says, from handing out emergency rations on one block to conducting an all-out battle with insurgents on another. Commanders in Iraq have found that 70-ton tanks, which literally shake the ground as they move, can help ward off guerrilla attacks simply through intimidation.

"The answer to complexity, volatility and uncertainty is always diversity," says Brig. Gen. David Fastabend, a senior officer in the Army's Futures Center, which does long-range planning.

The service recently canceled its $12.9 billion program for Comanche helicopters. Instead of spending the money on 121 stealthy Comanches -- designed to evade high-tech enemy radar -- the Army is spending the money to buy 825 attack and cargo helicopters and planes of the sort being used daily in Iraq.

They are changing their training:

In addition to putting them through months of mock raids, the colonel also gave each officer about a dozen books on Iraqi culture and counter-insurgency operations that he expects them to read in their spare time. The Army doesn't have a standard reading list for troops to read before deploying to Iraq, so Col. McMaster, who has a doctorate in history from the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, prepared his own.

The article also talks about how they are bringing experts from city planners to anthropologists to help with wargaming.

Critics will say the Army should have know this for a long time. I want to applaud the speed at which the leadership is adjusting the changing environment.

I think there is also a lesson about for business: Is your competition is same as it use to be? Are you using the same-old tactics and not getting the expected results?

December 08, 2004 in Strategy | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

LEGO gets customers involved

I absolutely love this story from Think by Peter Davidson. LEGO is allowing customers to download software, design their own building set, and then upload the design for competition against others. LEGO is going to put the winning designs into production. Winners will be awarded with design credit on the box, free sets of their design, and royalties.

Talk about getting your customers involved!

Love it!
Love it!
Love it!

November 30, 2004 in Open Source, Product Development, Strategy | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

It is all about speed.

I really like this post from Concrete Covina called Slow Down to Speed Up.

Fast Company has explored this topic a couple of times. Check out Time to Slow Down? (May 2000) and Slow Down, You Move Too Fast (Feb. 2001). It seems to me it was a cover story too. Hmmm...

November 30, 2004 in Strategy | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

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